Expected
value
Compare the price you're offered with a fair price or your own estimate. You'll see what the pick is worth on average.
Enter odds as American (-110, +150), decimal (1.91) or fractional (10/11). Everything is worked out in your browser. Nothing is saved or sent.
How it works
EV = chance of winning × profit − chance of losing × stake. If a pick at +110 has a true 50% chance, $100 returns on average 0.5 × $110 − 0.5 × $100 = +$5.
To get a fair chance, take both sides of the same market from a sharp source and run them through the no-vig calculator. Then compare that to the price at the site you play.
Questions
What is expected value (EV)?
The average result of a pick if you could make it many times: the chance of winning times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake. Positive EV means the price pays more than its true chance deserves.
Where does the win chance come from?
Nobody knows the true chance. A common stand-in is the no-vig price from a sharp, high-volume market. Enter it under "Fair odds" and the calculator turns it into a chance for you.
Does positive EV mean I will win?
No. EV is an average over many picks. Any single pick can lose, and a small edge takes a very large number of picks to show up. Your estimate of the chance can also simply be wrong.
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These calculators do math, not predictions. No price is a sure thing: sites can change lines, cancel picks made at a wrong price, limit accounts, or close markets before you place the other side. Never stake money you need, and never treat picks or trading as a way to make money. 21+. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Play responsibly.